Experts Expect to See Broad Improvements, Home Prices to Rise in 2013
Experts Expect to See Broad Improvements, Home Prices to Rise in 2013
The Urban Land Institute released its Real Estate Consensus Forecast Wednesday morning, and overall, the 38 real estate economists and analysts surveyed projected broad improvements for the economy.
With signs of improvement in the housing sector already emerging, participants expect to see housing starts nearly double by 2014 and project home prices will begin to rise in 2013.
The average home price, which has declined somewhere between 1.8 percent and 4.1 percent over each of the past three years, according to FHFA data, is expected to stabilize in 2012, followed by a 2 percent increase in 2013, and a 3.5 percent increase in 2014.
Single-family housing starts are expected to rise from 428,600 starts in 2011 to 500,000 in 2012, and jump to 800,000 in 2014.
The unemployment rate is expected to continue falling, with the rate dropping to 8 percent by the end of 2012, 7.5 percent by the end of 2013, and 6.9 percent by the end of 2014.
GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012 and grow to 3.2 percent in 2014.
But, with the improving economy is inflation and higher interest rates. These rising rates will increase costs for investors, and those surveyed do not expect substantial increases in real estate capitalization rates for institutional-quality investments (NCREIF cap rates), which are expected to remain steady at 6 percent in 2012 and 2013 and then rise slightly to 6.2 percent in 2014.
By property type, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) total returns in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments (12.1 percent), followed by industrial (11.5 percent), office (10.8 percent), and retail (10 percent).
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